It seems like Senator Ted Cruz cannot forget the Alamo. He changed his strategy after he received the third place and he began to mention Texas as the great state. He declared his bid almost a year ago and now he is eager to win at last. The debate seems like be very hot and the sensational Donald J. Trump begin to threaten both the Senator Marco Rubio and Senator Ted Cruz. Politics is getting hot and it starts to be like a boiling water. We all curious about what will happen next and the strategies of the Senators that will let them to win.
Ted Cruz Fights in Texas, Hoping It Won’t Be His Alamo
He is always eager to twang, delivering his best stump-speech impression of a West Texas farmer. He boasted recently that he knew how to “shoot me a bird.”
“I cannot wait to get home,” he told voters in Nevada, unsubtly, after a disappointing third-place finish in the caucuses there, “to the great state of Texas.”
Since announcing his bid nearly a year ago, Mr. Cruz has placed next week’s so-called Super Tuesday voting contests at the center of his plans: He would sweep through the heavily evangelical Southern primaries, advisers said, and run up the margin in his delegate-rich home state.
But as Donald J. Trump threatens to steamroll through the primary season, muscling Mr. Cruz and Senator Marco Rubio of Florida aside entering Thursday’s debate, there has been a reckoning deep in the heart of Cruz campaign headquarters: Texas could, for all practical purposes, be Mr. Cruz’s last stand.
On Wednesday, amid the machinery of a pipe and weld fittings manufacturing plant in Houston, Mr. Cruz reveled in a reception befitting a native son. Before a rollicking crowd that often mouthed his punch lines, Mr. Cruz received the endorsement of the state’s governor, Greg Abbott, his former boss.
Mr. Cruz reminded Texans that they were “not a people who give away our freedom quietly.” He recalled a slogan from the Texas Revolution (“Come and take it!”) and read from his iPhone a letter by the mission’s commander, William B. Travis, who died at the Battle of the Alamo.
“I am determined to sustain myself as long as possible and die like a soldier who never forgets what is due to his own honor and that of his country,” Mr. Cruz recited. “Victory or death.”
He added, “Like the Alamo in 1836, America is besieged.”
A Monmouth University poll released on Thursday showed Mr. Cruz in the lead with 38 percent support among likely Republican primary voters, outpacing Mr. Trump (23 percent) and Mr. Rubio (21 percent). Other polls have suggested the race is tighter.
Candidates who had ties to the state, like Jeb Bush and Rick Perry, have faded. Mr. Perry, the former governor, endorsed Mr. Cruz.
But the state’s delegate breakdown is proportional, and somewhat complicated, unless a candidate wins in a blowout. Of the 155 delegates, 108 are allocated across 36 congressional districts. If a candidate clears 50 percent in a district, he wins all three delegates for the district. Otherwise, a district winner receives two delegates and the runner-up gets one.
Separately, 44 statewide delegates are up for grabs. They are awarded in their entirety if a candidate wins more than half the vote over all. But candidates who clear 20 percent of the vote are eligible for delegates, meaning that both Mr. Trump and Mr. Rubio could eat into the total. (The remaining three delegates are unelected party leaders.)
While Mr. Trump is Mr. Cruz’s chief threat, Mr. Rubio has made clear that he intends to compete, scheduling rallies this week in Houston and Dallas — the types of urban areas, in addition to Austin, where he is seen as more viable.
Mr. Cruz will be relying heavily on suburban and exurban areas, pollsters say, hoping to excel in regions with many large conservative churches. He spoke Wednesday night at a dinner for Republicans in Harris County, the largest county in the state, an event that another Republican rival, Ben Carson, also attended.
Strategists see Mr. Trump as a possible favorite in rural areas and parts of southeast Texas with heavy blue-collar populations. And given the delegate math, he could walk off with a sizable chunk even in defeat.
Though Mr. Cruz remains broadly popular in the state, there are some who view him warily, noting that figures like Mr. Perry and former President George W. Bush were superior in personifying Texas folksiness.
“He doesn’t come across like Rick Perry does,” said Jerry Patterson, a former Texas land commissioner who is supporting Mr. Rubio. “Rick Perry and Jerry Patterson went to Texas Agricultural and Mechanical. Ted went to Harvard.”
Mr. Patterson added that he did not doubt Mr. Cruz’s Texas bona fides — “He wears boots and he likes guns. We’re pretty ecumenical about that,” he said — but worried that the senator appeared “too clever by half” as a campaigner.
Still, even detractors seem to agree that he has governed as he campaigned for the Senate in 2012: as a champion of conservative principles who views compromise with suspicion.
Mr. Cruz’s efforts in engineering a government shutdown the following year only helped his standing at home, making clear that he planned to redefine a role that predecessors like Kay Bailey Hutchison, a Texas senator from 1993 to 2013, had used more conspicuously to steer money toward state interests.
“From the very start, Ted Cruz has been much more a representative for the Tea Party movement nationwide, more than a senator from Texas in the traditional sense,” said Mark P. Jones, a political science professor at Rice University. “Cruz spends relatively little time and energy working for the direct interest of Texas alone.”
Waiting for Mr. Cruz at his Houston rally, Corey Kelly, 34, of Needville, Tex., said the senator was the first politician in memory who did “exactly what he said he was going to do.”
Publicly, Mr. Cruz’s team has vacillated when asked if he had to win the state to survive. Rick Tyler, his former communications director, initially called the state a must-win, then began hedging. (Mr. Cruz fired Mr. Tyler on Monday for spreading a misleading video about Mr. Rubio.)
Others have been less equivocal.
“Cruz has to win Texas,” said Ted Delisi, a Republican strategist in the state. “The bromides of needing to ‘do well’ in states, those come to a screeching halt when it comes to your own state.”
Mr. Cruz made few references to his rivals on Wednesday, though he seemed to have Mr. Trump in mind when he urged the crowd not to be “fooled by P.T. Barnum.”
“The time for the clowns and the acrobats and the dancing bears has passed,” he said.
At a news conference with Mr. Abbott after the event, Mr. Cruz appeared to grow frustrated at repeated questions about his path to victory if he falters on Super Tuesday.
“I’m curious how many reporters ask Marco Rubio after losing four states in a row, so when do you drop out when you haven’t won a state?” he said.
Mr. Cruz has made the case that only he is capable of beating Mr. Trump, citing his victory in Iowa.
At his own rally, though, there was at least one skeptical voice.
“Nationalism is the new thing, man,” said Jordan Voor, 30, a Trump supporter who works nearby and wore a longhorn belt buckle the size of a miniature football.
“I just kind of want to watch the establishment burn,” Mr. Voor added. “What’s the point of being conservative anymore? It’s a failing ideology.”
Kinky Friedman, a singer and humorist who ran for governor in 2006 — winning more than 12 percent of the vote as an independent — said that he admired Mr. Cruz, but was likewise drawn to Mr. Trump’s unconventional message.
Besides, Mr. Friedman predicted, the Texas primary will not matter much, anyway.
“Trump is obviously going to be the nominee,” he said. “Long may he wave.”