Reuters – The bulls have gained the upper hand inside the U.S. stock marketplace in current weeks and strategists are cautiously optimistic the rebound will continue.
Friday’s jobs report was the latest signal that those worries were overblown, with February U.S. payrolls surging more than expected.
The S&P 500 has gained in 10 out of 15 sessions since its Feb. 11 low, and on Friday closed above its 100-day moving average for first time in 2016. Half of 10 S&P sectors – including energy, which had been severely beaten down – are now positive for the year.
In another upbeat sign for the market, the Dow Jones transportation average .DJT has been outperforming the broader market. It is up 1.9 percent since Dec. 31, largely because of the recent gains in oil prices, while the S&P 500 is down 2.2 percent.
“If you were pricing this thing for a recession, you’ve got to take it back out,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis. He added that the S&P 500 could test its high from May 2015, when it closed at a record 2,130.82.
He and others are expecting data to continue to support the view that the United States will avoid a recession, though they said plenty could still derail the market.
For one, while stock investors cheered Friday’s payrolls, investors worry more upbeat data will bolster prospects for a rate hike from the Federal Reserve this year.
Investors see the Fed as holding off on rate hikes for now, helping stocks in recent weeks, said Donald Selkin, chief market strategist at National Securities in New York.
A majority of Wall Street’s top banks expect the Fed to raise interest rates only two more times by the end of the year, a downgrade of earlier expectations, according to a Reuters poll on Friday.
The economic, Fed and earnings calendars are light next week. Oil prices are likely to keep their dominant role.
“You don’t want oil prices to go back below $30,” Selkin said.
The power index .SPNY, which was the worst-performing sector of 2015, is now up more than 20 % in the Jan. 20 bottom.
Stabilizing oil costs, in conjunction with some weakness in the dollar, could help U.S. earnings, which are anticipated to be down for any third consecutive quarter inside the initial quarter of 2016.
“I think risks have diminished … but one of the things that keeps us cautious are estimate revisions for both earnings and sales,” where the trend is weak, said Dan Suzuki, senior U.S. equity strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York.